1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 12, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 3, 4:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 33% vs market 66% — STRONG OVERPRICED
- Apr 12, 12:00 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
65.5%
The market was pricing this event at 65.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
33.2%
EDGE DETECTED
22.8pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
43.3%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Verified polling shows Magyar maintaining 10-point lead with strong youth turnout just 9 days before election
- ▸Market underprices momentum despite electoral system challenges already factored into required margin
FACTORS FOR
- +Consistent 10-point polling lead
- +Strong youth/urban coalition
- +Recent momentum indicators
- +Anti-corruption message resonating
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Electoral system favors incumbents
- −Fidesz rural strongholds
- −Historical manipulation risks
- −Undecided voter uncertainty
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 32.3% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.446
MARKET ACCURACY
0.119
EDGE
-326.9
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?, classifying it as overpriced at 65.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 33.2% vs market 65.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 3, 2026·Resolved: April 12, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.