1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 5, 6:04 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 92% vs market 68% — STRONG UNDERPRICED
- Apr 10, 2:45 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +47% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
68.0%
The market was pricing this event at 68.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
92.0%
EDGE DETECTED
15.4pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
75.1%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Ethereum currently trades at $2,046.86, only $6.87 above the $2,039.99 threshold with 15 hours until resolution
- ▸Market appears conservative given minimal downside risk required for YES outcome
FACTORS FOR
- +Current price $2,046.86 above threshold
- +Only 0.3% decline needed to fail
- +15 hours remaining for volatility
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Crypto volatility can exceed 0.3% intraday
- −CF Benchmarks RTI may differ from spot
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 24.0% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.006
MARKET ACCURACY
0.102
EDGE
+96.0
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Ethereum price at Apr 5, 2026 at 5pm EDT?, classifying it as underpriced at 68.0%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 92.0% vs market 68.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 5, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.