🏛Politics/KALSHI/May 17, 2026
kalshi market

Who will win the 2026 Georgia Secretary of State primary?

PRISM
47.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
60.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-60pp

PRISM detected 5.0pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 47% against the market's 60%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 16, 2026 at 10:07 AM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+5.0ppPRISM 47% · Market 60%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
47.0%
VS
MARKET
60.0%
EDGE DETECTED5.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
+4
PUBLISHED
May 17, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on June 17, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

3 events
  1. May 16, 10:07 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 47% vs market 60% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. May 17, 4:06 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 60%

  3. Jun 17, 1:30 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
60.0%

The market was pricing this event at 60.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
47.0%
EDGE DETECTED
5.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Available information provides no candidate- or race-specific edge beyond the market price
  • ▸With no polling or field data, calibration argues for staying close to the existing 60% level
FACTORS FOR
  • +Market already prices her as a modest favorite at 60%
  • +Near-term resolution suggests traders incorporate latest private information
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −No verified polling or candidate field data available
  • −Unknown partisan primary and potential runoff dynamics
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Dana Barrett wins outright on primary election night45%
Dana Barrett reaches runoff and then wins it15%
Evidence 44%
SOURCES (3)
last day
  • East Cobb election-day voting guide for the 2026 primarieseastcobbnews.com

    The polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday. The deadline for mailed-in or hand-delivered absentee ballots to the Cobb Elections office is 7 p.m. ...

    May 16Open →
  • Georgia early voters top 1M, breaking primary election recordthecurrentga.org

    Georgia voters broke a turnout record for early voting in a primary election, with Democrats having a 15 percentage point advantage over Republicans, ...

    May 16Open →
  • Georgia Secretary of State (General Election) - MultiStatemultistate.us

    Barrett; DPenny Brown Reynolds. Office History. 2026. Nov 3 · General Election Runoff Rule: 50%. May 19 · Democratic Primary Runoff Rule: 50% · 4 candidates ...

    May 17Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 13.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.356
MARKET ACCURACY
0.360
EDGE
+3.9
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Who will win the 2026 Georgia Secretary of State primary?, classifying it as overpriced at 60.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 47.0% vs market 60.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.125-fast-ledger-floor·Forecasted: May 17, 2026·Resolved: June 17, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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