What happened
This market resolved NO on August 4, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
5 events- May 12, 6:07 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 49% vs market 48% — NONE FAIR
- May 21, 5:21 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 82%
- May 26, 8:09 AMRE-ANALYZED
Prism 64% — edge +4.7pp
- May 26, 8:09 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 48% → 60% (+12pp)
- Aug 4, 6:19 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 45.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Probability estimate: 64%
- ▸Threshold is well below historic norms and there is ample time for a partial traffic recovery to briefly lift the 7‑day average above 60
- +Historic normal near 120–130 makes 60 a modest recovery level
- +More than one‑year window increases chance of at least one ≥60 print
- −Expert guidance suggests prolonged sub‑normal traffic into 2027
- −Large ship backlog and coordination may prolong constrained throughputs
- Hormuz Strait Reopening Won't Normalize Supply Quicklychosun.com
Hormuz Strait Reopening Wont Normalize Supply Quickly Four Months Needed for 80% Recovery; Full Normalization by 2027 The United States and Iran have.
May 26Open → - Will the US Send Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?lines.com
Related market data shows the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June at only 31 percent probability, suggesting ongoing disruption that ...
May 26Open → - On May 31st 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing ...manifold.markets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket] ... Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
May 26Open → - Nikkei: Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz 30 days after US dealcryptobriefing.com
Nikkei reports Iran will reopen Hormuz 30 days after a US deal; ceasefire extension by June 7 at 73.5% YES, Hormuz normal by May 31 at 3% YES.
May 25Open → - The Strait of Hormuz is to be opened in 30 days, Oil down 7% – WTI ...marketpulse.com
WTI Crude update: WTI Crude oil prices plunge 7% as President Trump projects a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Explore our in-depth ...
May 25Open → - Oil Predictions & Real-Time Odds - Polymarketpolymarket.com
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Politics·Iran. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? $1M Vol. $140K today. $122K Liq ...
May 26Open → - IMF PortWatch resolution contextportwatch.imf.org
Source: IMF PortWatch Resolution field: 7-day moving average of transit calls through Strait of Hormuz above 60, per IMF PortWatch Frequency: event-driven Contract terms: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/POLITICALSTATTEMPORAL.pdf Known rule risks: Traders price this as geopolitical sentiment ("will Iran tensions ease?") but it's a DATA market with quantitative threshold; IMF PortWatch is publicly accessible — you can track the 7-day MA in real-time; "Transit calls" = ship passages, tracked by AIS (Automatic Identification System) data
May 26Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 36.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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