1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 3, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 2, 6:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 5% vs market 22% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 3, 3:00 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
21.5%
The market was pricing this event at 21.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
5.1%
EDGE DETECTED
10.5pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
66.3%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Current RCP average stands at 42.1%, requiring 1.3-point decline to reach narrow 40.8-41.0% band
- ▸Recent polling data shows consistent readings above 41%, making precise target unlikely
FACTORS FOR
- +Polling volatility could shift average downward
- +Narrow 0.2-point window creates some possibility
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Current 42.1% average well above target range
- −All recent polls above 41.0% threshold
- −Short timeframe limits polling movement
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 16.4% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.901
MARKET ACCURACY
0.616
EDGE
-285.1
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will the President's approval rating be between 40.8 and 41.0 according to RealClearPolitics?, classifying it as overpriced at 21.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 5.1% vs market 21.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 2, 2026·Resolved: April 3, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.