What happened
This market resolved YES on June 2, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
4 events- May 20, 10:07 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 76% vs market 67% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 21, 12:08 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 85%
- May 21, 12:08 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 67% → 83% (+16pp)
- Jun 2, 1:46 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 66.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates a high likelihood the ceasefire persists through May 24 under the contract’s narrow strike definition
- ▸This matters because some traders may overweight proxy violence that does not trigger NO resolution
- +Verified news shows no recent U.S. strikes on Iranian territory
- +Diplomatic channels open with no clear escalation signals
- +Ceasefire has held for weeks despite regional friction
- +Resolution requires specifically U.S. kinetic action on Iranian soil
- −Ceasefire widely characterized as fragile and imperfect
- −Regional fighting in Lebanon and elsewhere could spark rapid escalation
- Trump: Ceasefire Shaky; Iran Issues Death Threats | CBN ...youtube.com
President Trump says the US was just one hour away from launching another military strike against Iran before he held off at the request of America's Arab ...
May 20Open → - BREAKING NEWS: Iran Demands End to All Fighting ...youtube.com
W News host Leigh-Ann Gerrans brings you the latest breaking news as Iran demands an end to all fighting, including in Lebanon, amid rising regional ...
May 20Open → - Headlines for May 20, 2026democracynow.org
It comes as President Trump says Iran has “two or three days” to reach a deal to end the war or face renewed attacks. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate voted Tuesday ...
May 20Open → - Iran warns Trump: 'We'll take war global if you bomb us again'youtube.com
Iran has threatened to spread the war beyond the Middle East if Donald Trump starts bombing the country again. Is it an empty threat or should we be worried ...
May 20Open → - Anmol Pinky Drug Case Shocking Updates | Weather Alert ...youtube.com
... 21 May 2026 In meeting with Putin, Xi urges immediate Middle East ceasefire amid Gulf tensions Naqvi reaches Tehran again as Pakistan steps up US-Iran ...
May 20Open → - Amnesty: Executions Spike in Iran as Gov't Intensifies ...democracynow.org
Amnesty International's 2025 report on the global use of the death penalty finds that executions have surged to their highest recorded number in over 40 ...
May 20Open → - Expert urges US to ‘flip the script’ and 'empower' Iranian ...foxnews.com
FDD senior director of the Iran Program Behnam Ben Taleblu discusses potential U.S. strikes on Iran, the fragile ceasefire between the two countries, ...
May 20Open → - What's the significance of the Russian president's visit to ...youtube.com
Trump hopeful of peace deal with Iran; Iranian president rejects US conditions | Janta Ka Reporter · Has an invitation to Beijing become the hottest ticket in ...
May 20Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 9.5% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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