What happened
This market resolved NO on May 28, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 26, 12:09 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 67% vs market 58% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 28, 2:00 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 58.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Probability estimate: 62% that BEA-reported April 2026 personal spending exceeds 0.5% month-over-month
- ▸Forecast consensus around 0.6% and recent 0.9% momentum modestly favor a YES outcome
- +Calendar consensus forecast is 0.6%, above 0.5% cutoff
- +Recent months show rising personal spending, including 0.9% in March
- −Only slight margin of forecast over threshold leaves downside risk
- −Short-horizon macro data can surprise versus consensus
- Economic Calendartradingeconomics.com
Wednesday May 27 2026, Actual, Previous, Consensus, Forecast. Wednesday May ... Personal Spending MoM APR, 0.9%, 0.5% · 0.6%. 12:30 PM. US. Corporate Profits QoQ ...
May 26Open → - Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) resolution contextbea.gov
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Resolution field: Personal income and outlays release: personal consumption expenditures / personal spending month-over-month change Frequency: monthly Known rule risks: BEA release timing is 8:30 AM ET; markets often close before the release, so consensus/nowcast quality matters; Personal spending and PCE price index are different fields — do not substitute inflation data for spending growth; MoM change is derived from seasonally adjusted monthly values; revisions to prior months can shift the implied change
May 26Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — U.S. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Latest Value: $21,860.50 (as of 2026-03-01) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +$195.40 (+0.90%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2025-11-01: $21,356.00 2025-12-01: $21,445.90 2026-01-01: $21,525.50 2026-02-01: $21,665.10 2026-03-01: $21,860.50 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: $202.00 billions $ Current value: $21,860.50 Distance to target: $21,65
May 26Open → - US Core PCE Price Index MoM - Investing.com Canadaca.investing.com
Get the Core PCE Price Index (MoM) results in real time as they're announced and see the immediate global market impact.
May 22Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 9.3% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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