🏛Politics/POLYMARKET/May 23, 2026
polymarket market

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

PRISM
27.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
35.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-35pp

PRISM detected 5.0pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 27% against the market's 35%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 19, 2026 at 6:07 PM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+5.0ppPRISM 27% · Market 35%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
27.0%
VS
MARKET
35.0%
EDGE DETECTED5.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
-25
PUBLISHED
May 23, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 27, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

11 events
  1. May 12, 6:07 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 24% vs market 26% — NONE FAIR

  2. May 17, 12:05 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 26% → 21% (-6pp)

  3. May 17, 8:04 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 21% → 33% (+12pp)

  4. May 19, 2:08 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 33% → 25% (-8pp)

  5. May 19, 6:07 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 27%

  6. May 19, 6:07 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 25% → 35% (+10pp)

  7. May 20, 4:06 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 32%

  8. May 20, 8:07 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 35% → 18% (-18pp)

  9. May 23, 12:06 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 18% → 31% (+14pp)

  10. May 23, 6:07 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 31% → 22% (-9pp)

  11. May 27, 3:29 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
35.0%

The market was pricing this event at 35.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
27.0%
EDGE DETECTED
5.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Estimated probability is slightly below market, reflecting ambiguity whether reported western restrictions meet the strict 'major closure' definition
  • ▸This matters because partial or conditional limits may resolve NO despite headlines
FACTORS FOR
  • +Recent reports of western Iran airspace restrictions and airport limits
  • +Heightened regional tension raises tail risk of sudden wider closure
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −No primary-source Iranian NOTAM confirming a qualifying major closure yet
  • −Market requires broad, Iran-initiated commercial suspension, not just regional curbs
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Documented Iran-ordered major western-region closure meeting criteria12%
Nationwide or multi-region closure after sudden security escalation9%
Evidence 70%Cluster: us-iran
SOURCES (4)
last day
  • May 23, 2026 — Iran Shuts Airspace. 3 Days Left. - YouTubeyoutube.com

    Iran closed its western airspace and warned of a devastating third retaliation. US airstrikes could come within days. Pakistan and Qatar are racing to ...

    May 23Open →
  • Iran closes western airspace to regulated flights amid rising ...mezha.net

    Iran temporarily closed western airspace to regulated flights after a NOTAM, restricting passenger routes, limiting operations to daylight hours, ...

    May 23Open →
  • Iran's Strait of Hormuz plan sparks fears of global oil shockgulfnews.com

    Iran's Civil Aviation Authority has issued a NOTAM restricting operations at most western airports in the Tehran Flight Information Region until early Monday, ...

    May 23Open →
  • United Arab Emirates in the 2026 Iran war - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org

    Safety measures were implemented including airspace closures and public safety advisories, and urged residents to rely on official sources for information.

    May 23Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 8.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.074
MARKET ACCURACY
0.050
EDGE
-24.8
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Iran closes its airspace by May 24?, classifying it as overpriced at 35.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 27.0% vs market 35.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.154-macro-family-dedup·Forecasted: May 23, 2026·Resolved: May 27, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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