What happened
This market resolved NO on June 30, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
4 events- Apr 26, 12:12 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 39% vs market 40% — NONE FAIR
- May 2, 4:13 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 40% → 23% (-18pp)
- May 21, 10:06 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 31%
- Jun 30, 12:00 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 22.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates Google is a credible but currently trailing contender for top LM Arena rank by mid‑2026
- ▸Rapid model iteration and leaderboard volatility sustain a meaningful upside tail for a late Google surge
- +Google’s scale and infrastructure support rapid model improvements through 2026.
- +Leaderboard can be volatile as new frontier models are released.
- +Alphabetical tiebreak slightly favors Google in rare exact-score ties.
- −Current leaderboard shows Google clearly behind leading competitors.
- −Anthropic and OpenAI have recent edge in Arena performance.
- −Multiple strong labs compete, diluting Google’s top‑rank odds.
- −Resolution depends on a single snapshot, increasing idiosyncratic risk.
- Which company has best AI model end of June? - Polymarketpolymarket.com
The current frontrunner for "Which company has best AI model end of June?" is "Anthropic" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The ...
May 20Open → - Top AI model this week Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on May 23, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LM Arena ...
May 20Open → - Which company has best AI model end of June? - Perplexityperplexity.ai
Anthropic dominates this market at 73.6% — consistent with its leaderboard supremacy reflected in the parallel "best Math AI model" market (78%) and WSJ's ...
May 20Open → - Which Company Has the Best AI Model End of June 2026? - Geminigemini.com
Which Company Has the Best AI Model End of June 2026? Google. Anthropic.
May 15Open → - The 10 best AI voice assistants in 2026: A comprehensive guideglean.com
The pricing is structured across personal, business, and developer tiers. Gemini: Free Google AI Pro: $19.99 monthly. Google AI Ultra: $249.99 monthly.
May 20Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 8.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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