🏛Politics/POLYMARKET/May 26, 2026
polymarket market
Diplomatic event

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

PRISM
22.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
36.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-37pp

PRISM detected 10.0pp overconfidence — and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 37%. Model estimate: 22%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+57% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 26, 2026 at 9:18 PM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+10.0ppPRISM 22% · Market 37%
PRISM
22.0%
VS
MARKET
36.5%
EDGE DETECTED10.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+85
PUBLISHED
May 26, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on June 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

3 events
  1. May 24, 10:07 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 29% vs market 33% — NONE FAIR

  2. May 26, 9:19 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 22%

  3. Jun 1, 6:09 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +57% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
36.5%

The market was pricing this event at 36.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
22.0%
EDGE DETECTED
10.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Fundamental analysis indicates a very low probability of a qualifying US announcement before the imminent deadline
  • ▸Verified sources confirm no finalized agreement and significant diplomatic hurdles remain
FACTORS FOR
  • +Prediction market volume indicates speculative interest
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −No official announcement as of now
  • −Diplomatic preconditions remain unmet
  • −Short time window to deadline
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
US and Iran reach and announce a new framework before deadline5%
US unilaterally announces a dated extension of the ceasefire15%
Credible reporting definitively establishes a qualifying agreement2%
Evidence 45%Cluster: us-iran
SOURCES (2)
last day
  • Iran accuses U.S. of "grave violation" of ceasefire as Trump seeks ...cbsnews.com

    As Iran accuses the U.S. of a "grave violation" of the fragile ceasefire, Rubio says a deal is still possible despite the latest clash.

    May 26Open →
  • Iran Ceasefire Bets Top $23M | StartupHub.aistartuphub.ai

    Decentralized prediction markets show over $23M wagered on the US-Iran ceasefire continuation, with strong odds favoring de-escalation.

    May 26Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 14.5% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.048
MARKET ACCURACY
0.133
EDGE
+84.8
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?, classifying it as overpriced at 36.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 22.0% vs market 36.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.182-publish-floor-resolver-gate·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: June 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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