₿Crypto/POLYMARKET/April 1, 2026
polymarket market
Crypto weekly close

Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?

PRISM
17.5%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
32.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-33pp

PRISM detected 6.9pp overconfidence — and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 33%. Model estimate: 17%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+48% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 1, 2026 at 10:03 AM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+6.9ppPRISM 17% · Market 33%
PRISM
17.5%
VS
MARKET
32.5%
EDGE DETECTED6.9pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+75
PUBLISHED
Apr 1, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on April 6, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 1, 10:03 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 17% vs market 33% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. Apr 6, 4:00 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +48% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
32.5%

The market was pricing this event at 32.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
17.5%
EDGE DETECTED
6.9pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
30.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Bitcoin needs 4.9% gain to $72,000 but historical data shows 0% success rate for similar moves in 5-day windows
  • ▸Market appears to overestimate probability given volatility constraints
FACTORS FOR
  • +High volatility allows large moves
  • +No major resistance until $72,000
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Historical 0% success rate for required move
  • −No catalysts scheduled for timeframe
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 15.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.031
MARKET ACCURACY
0.106
EDGE
+75.1
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?, classifying it as overpriced at 32.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 17.5% vs market 32.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: April 6, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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