📈Finance/KALSHI/May 25, 2026
kalshi market

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.50?

PRISM
70.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
75.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-75pp

PRISM detected 5.0pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 70% against the market's 75%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 21, 2026 at 4:07 PM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+5.0ppPRISM 70% · Market 75%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
70.0%
VS
MARKET
75.0%
EDGE DETECTED5.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
-21
PUBLISHED
May 25, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 31, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

4 events
  1. May 20, 2:09 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 65% vs market 75% — NONE FAIR

  2. May 21, 4:07 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 70%

  3. May 25, 2:07 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 76%

  4. May 31, 4:30 PMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
75.0%

The market was pricing this event at 75.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
70.0%
EDGE DETECTED
5.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Probability estimate: 77%
  • ▸Seasonal demand and existing market pricing imply a strong chance AAA’s U.S
  • ▸average remains above $4.50 on the resolution date
FACTORS FOR
  • +Market already prices YES heavily favored near resolution
  • +Late‑May driving season usually supports higher gasoline prices
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −AAA source and current price level are not specified
  • −Short window allows for potential crude or refining downside shocks
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Prices already near/above $4.50 and hold into late May60%
Currently below $4.50 but spike above before AAA print17%
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 5.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.583
MARKET ACCURACY
0.563
EDGE
-20.7
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will average **gas prices** be above $4.50?, classifying it as overpriced at 75.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 70.0% vs market 75.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.165-resolver-wide-evidence-hygiene·Forecasted: May 25, 2026·Resolved: May 31, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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