1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 8, 3:04 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 73% vs market 54% — STRONG UNDERPRICED
- Apr 10, 9:30 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +85% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
54.0%
The market was pricing this event at 54.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
72.8%
EDGE DETECTED
14.2pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
40.8%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
5.0%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸SOL trades at $84.62, above the $83.9999 threshold with strong social sentiment
- ▸Two-day maintenance period creates modest downside risk despite current positioning
FACTORS FOR
- +Currently above threshold at $84.62
- +Strong bullish social sentiment at 78%
- +ETF momentum driving institutional interest
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Two days of volatility risk remaining
- −CF Benchmarks RTI may differ from spot
- −Recent decline from $92 levels
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
SOL stays above $84 through April 10 settlement50%
Intraday volatility drops below threshold temporarily8%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 18.8% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.074
MARKET ACCURACY
0.212
EDGE
+137.5
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed SOL price on Apr 10, 2026?, classifying it as underpriced at 54.0%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 72.8% vs market 54.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 5.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 8, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.