What happened
This market resolved NO on June 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
3 events- May 23, 6:07 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 15% vs market 18% — NONE FAIR
- May 26, 10:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 13%
- Jun 1, 3:00 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +22% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 18.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates a low but nonzero chance of a confirmed Andes virus case in India before the deadline
- ▸Multiple strict conditions and a very short window make YES overvalued at 18%
- +Documented recent global Andes virus activity (e.g., MV Hondius outbreak)
- +Imported cases into India are explicitly allowed under rules
- −Extremely low global case numbers and no India reports to date
- −Confirmation must occur in India and before the strict deadline
- Andes strain hantavirus: US citizens under monitoring | Omnicurisomnicuris.com
Learn about the Andes strain hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship. Explore symptoms, transmission risks, and repatriation efforts for patients.
May 25Open → - Hantavirus Guide: Symptoms & How to Stay Safe - DoctHubblogs.docthub.com
Till now, the WHO has stated that Andes virus infection has been confirmed in 11 cases and from that, 3 have reported death from the infection. The only 2 ...
May 22Open → - Outbreak Updates - NaTHNaCtravelhealthpro.org.uk
On 18 May 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) stated that a total of 11 cases of Andes virus (nine confirmed and two probable), including three deaths ...
May 21Open → - Hantavirus 2026: Global Overview of Deaths and Casessahyadrihospital.com
Stay updated on the 2026 Andes virus hantavirus outbreak with global case updates, transmission risks, prevention measures, and safety guidelines.
May 20Open → - [PDF] 2026-WCP-0027 Draft.docx - ECDCecdc.europa.eu
As of 22 May 2026, a total of 11 cases of Andes virus (ANDV) disease have been reported, including nine confirmed and two probable. No new cases or deaths ...
May 22Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 5.0% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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