Will the natural gas close price be above 3.099 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? — PRISM was right

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 29, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

4 events

May 23, 10:10 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 24% vs market 23% — NONE FAIR
May 25, 12:07 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 31%
May 26, 2:09 AMRE-ANALYZED
Prism 43% — edge +10.0pp
May 29, 11:00 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +335% return.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

23.0%

The market was pricing this event at 23.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

31.0%

EDGE DETECTED

5.0pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

MEDIUM

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Fundamental analysis indicates a slightly sub‑even chance natural gas settles above 3.099
▸The price is currently near the threshold amid modestly rising fundamentals but short‑term downside commentary

FACTORS FOR

+Henry Hub cash price recently rose to around the threshold level
+Natural gas exhibits high short‑term volatility near key levels

FACTORS AGAINST

−Latest futures snapshot below 3.099 at 2.9300
−Recent commentary describes downside risk and weekly price decline

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Price trends modestly higher into May 29 and holds above 3.099 at 5 PM27%

Volatile trading day with late‑session spike leaving 5 PM close above 3.09916%

Evidence 65%

SOURCES (2)

last week

FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: Henry Hub Natural Gas Latest Value: $3.07 (as of 2026-05-18) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +$0.18 (+6.23%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-12: $2.91 2026-05-13: $2.88 2026-05-14: $2.79 2026-05-15: $2.89 2026-05-18: $3.07 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: $3.10 $/MMBtu Current value: $3.07 Distance to target: $0.03 BELOW target (0.9% below) Direction required: Value must stay above or rise
May 26Open →
U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - EIAeia.gov
This is the fourth month in a row where prices for gasoline and diesel fuel saw increases in all categories of sale. Refiner sales of gasoline and diesel fuel ...
May 22Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 8.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.325

MARKET ACCURACY

0.593

EDGE

+268.0

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the natural gas close price be above 3.099 USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?, classifying it as underpriced at 23.0%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 31.0% vs market 23.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

VIEW LIVE FORECASTS

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PRISM: v0.9.176-actionable-slot-priority·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: May 29, 2026·kalshi

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.