🌍Geopolitics/POLYMARKET/May 23, 2026
polymarket market

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

PRISM
24.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
31.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-32pp

PRISM detected 7.5pp overconfidence β€” and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 32%. Model estimate: 24%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+100% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 19, 2026 at 6:05 AM
MODERATE Β· OVERPRICED+7.5ppPRISM 24% Β· Market 32%
Live view diverged Β· PRISM reclassified to MODERATE with edge now +5.4pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
24.0%
VS
MARKET
31.5%
EDGE DETECTED7.5pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+51
PUBLISHED
May 23, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on June 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

β—ˆ

Forecast Tape

14 events
  1. May 6, 4:31 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 31% vs market 34% β€” NONE FAIR

  2. May 7, 6:05 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 34% β†’ 22% (-12pp)

  3. May 9, 6:06 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 22% β†’ 16% (-6pp)

  4. May 10, 12:04 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 16% β†’ 25% (+9pp)

  5. May 11, 5:15 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 25% β†’ 32% (+7pp)

  6. May 14, 8:09 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 32% β†’ 21% (-11pp)

  7. May 19, 6:05 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE β†’ MODERATE at Prism 24%

  8. May 19, 6:05 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 21% β†’ 32% (+11pp)

  9. May 20, 12:08 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 32% β†’ 42% (+10pp)

  10. May 20, 10:07 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE β†’ NONE at Prism 21%

  11. May 20, 10:07 PMMARKET MOVED

    Market 42% β†’ 23% (-18pp)

  12. May 23, 12:08 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE β†’ MODERATE at Prism 45%

  13. May 23, 12:08 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 23% β†’ 50% (+27pp)

  14. Jun 1, 7:18 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +100% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE Β· AT FORECAST TIME
31.5%

The market was pricing this event at 31.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high β€” the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
24.0%
EDGE DETECTED
7.5pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (ΒΌ Kelly Β· cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • β–ΈFundamental analysis indicates a modestly below-even chance of a qualifying nationwide airspace closure by the deadline
  • β–ΈThe rarity of such actions and absence of preparatory signals reduce odds relative to market pricing
FACTORS FOR
  • +Elevated regional tensions increase tail risk of sudden blanket closure
  • +Qatar airspace closure shows precedent for drastic regional measures
FACTORS AGAINST
  • βˆ’No Israeli NOTAMs or official indications of an impending broad closure
  • βˆ’Historical practice favors brief, localized halts over nationwide shutdowns
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Major direct attack prompts temporary nationwide civil airspace shutdown32%
Intelligence on imminent threat triggers preemptive broad closure order14%
Evidence 51%
SOURCES (4)
last day
  • US military stations aircraft at Israel's Ben Gurion amid rising tensionscryptobriefing.com

    US military aircraft are stationed at Israel's Ben Gurion amid rising tensions. Israel closes its airspace by May 31 at 19.5% YES.

    May 22Open β†’
  • [PDF] (Airlines2026: Qatar Airspace Update) Is Qatar airspace closed now?apprenticeship.gov

    March 2026: ✈ + 44-808-303-1446 【UK】Or β­•+1. 877/513/8307 【US】 Qatari airspace is currently closed following large-scale US and. Israeli strikes on Iranian ...

    May 22Open β†’
  • Amendment of United States Area Navigation Route T-306 and ...federalregister.gov

    This action proposes to amend United States Area Navigation Route (RNAV) Route T-306 and the establishment of RNAV Route T-647 in the Southwestern United ...

    May 22Open β†’
  • Middle East conflict | Smartravellersmartraveller.gov.au

    Airports, hotels, roads, bridges and other infrastructure in the region have been struck with missiles. Airspace may close at short notice. Flights can change ...

    May 22Open β†’

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 7.5% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.199
MARKET ACCURACY
0.250
EDGE
+51.1
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Israel closes its airspace by May 31?, classifying it as overpriced at 31.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED β€” PRISM estimate 24.0% vs market 31.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: β€”% (ΒΌ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only β€” not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths β€” updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.152-kalshi-nearterm-recallΒ·Forecasted: May 23, 2026Β·Resolved: June 1, 2026Β·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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