1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 11, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 1, 6:03 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 1% vs market 33% — STRONG OVERPRICED
- Apr 11, 6:22 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
32.5%
The market was pricing this event at 32.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
1.0%
EDGE DETECTED
16.8pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
68.5%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Iranian leadership explicitly rejected negotiations March 26-29 while talks stalled since February 6
- ▸Market overprices diplomatic breakthrough given verified official rejections and structural obstacles
FACTORS FOR
- +Trump claims progress March 29
- +Historical precedent for surprise diplomacy
- +Indirect talks continue via mediators
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Iranian parliament rejected talks March 29
- −Military command rejected accommodation March 26
- −Supreme Leader non-participation obstacle
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 31.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.980
MARKET ACCURACY
0.456
EDGE
-524.5
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 32.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 1.0% vs market 32.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: April 11, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.