📈Finance/KALSHI/May 26, 2026
kalshi market
BLS NFP report

Will above 50000 jobs be added in May 2026?

PRISM
72.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
63.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+37pp

PRISM detected 9.0pp mispricing — market held

PRISM estimated 72% against the market's 63%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 24, 2026 at 10:07 PM
MODERATE · UNDERPRICED+9.0ppPRISM 72% · Market 63%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
72.0%
VS
MARKET
63.0%
EDGE DETECTED9.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+65
PUBLISHED
May 26, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on June 5, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

3 events
  1. May 24, 10:07 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 72% vs market 63% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED

  2. May 26, 4:10 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 76%

  3. Jun 5, 2:30 PMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
63.0%

The market was pricing this event at 63.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
72.0%
EDGE DETECTED
9.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Probability estimate: 68%
  • ▸Historical expansion payroll gains are rarely below +50,000, so modest upside to the market price is warranted absent clear recession signals
FACTORS FOR
  • +Historical expansions show monthly gains far above +50,000.
  • +Recent trend described as continued positive, though cooling, gains.
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Two-week horizon allows for emerging recession or shock risks.
  • −High-frequency data or policy surprises could weaken labor demand.
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Economy remains in expansion with typical 100k+ monthly gains55%
Growth slows but still delivers 50k–100k job gains13%
Evidence 0%
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 9.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.057
MARKET ACCURACY
0.122
EDGE
+65.1
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will above 50000 jobs be added in May 2026?, classifying it as underpriced at 63.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 72.0% vs market 63.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.178-resolver-packet-readiness·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: June 5, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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