What happened
This market resolved YES on May 15, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 15, 10:05 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 63% vs market 72% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 15, 2:22 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 71.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates Ultra Prime is modestly stronger than a winless Oh My God in this BO3
- ▸Cancellation, delay, or unusual forfeit rules slightly reduce effective win probability below pure team strength
- +Ultra Prime has better series and game records than OMG.
- +BO3 format reduces variance and favors the stronger side.
- −Both teams are lower-tier with poor records, increasing upset risk.
- −Non-play, long delay, or certain forfeits resolve to 50-50.
- LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana ...polymarket.com
This market refers to the LoL match between Ultra Prime and Oh My God in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for May 15 at 5:00AM ET.
May 15Open → - LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Odds ...polymarket.com
This market refers to the LoL match between LNG Esports and LGD Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for May 14 at 5:00AM ET.
May 14Open → - Ultra Prime vs Oh My God | LPL - Sheep Esportssheepesports.com
Upcoming: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God in LPL (Bo3). Pre-match analysis, head-to-head stats, and team overviews on Sheep Esports.
May 14Open → - Bet your skins on the match Ultra Prime vs Oh My God | LPL 2026 ...bets4.net
According to users, the probability of Oh My God winning before the start of the match is 58%. In addition, other bets on League of Legends are available on the ...
May 14Open → - LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - Polymarketpolymarket.com
This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and EDward Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for May 16 at 5:00AM ET.
May 15Open → - Ultra Prime vs Oh My God no LPL 2026 Split 2bo3.gg
Visão geral completa do Ultra Prime vs Oh My God no LPL 2026 Split 2. Conheça as informações e estatísticas das partidas de League of Legends e esteja ...
May 15Open → - Ultra Prime vs Oh My God | LPLsheepesports.com
Upcoming: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God in LPL (Bo3). Pre-match analysis, head-to-head stats, and team overviews on Sheep Esports.
May 14Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 8.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTS