What happened
This market resolved NO on May 18, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 17, 6:08 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 24% vs market 17% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 18, 4:11 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 17.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates Jon Rahm has roughly a one-in-four chance entering the final round two strokes behind
- ▸Elite major pedigree, strong form, and a relatively inexperienced leader offset his current deficit
- +Elite major champion with proven Sunday contention performance
- +Only two shots back with 18 holes remaining
- +Bookmakers broadly rate him as co-favorite or near-favorite
- +Leader lacks prior experience with 54-hole leads in big events
- −Currently trailing with limited remaining holes to catch up
- −Multiple other elite contenders within a few shots
- −High inherent variance in single-round stroke-play outcomes
- PGA Championship odds: Smalley has lead, trails Rahm on ... - ESPNespn.com
Jon Rahm is the favorite at +465, then Ludvig Åberg (+600) and Rory McIlroy (+760) trail Smalley as the only other golfers shorter than 12-1. It took a truly ...
May 17Open → - 2026 PGA Championship odds, Sunday picks: Proven golf model ...sportsline.com
Rahm and Aberg are both at +550 and McIlroy is +700. The final group tees off at 2:35 p.m. ET on Sunday. Before locking in any 2026 PGA Championship ...
May 17Open → - 2026 PGA Championship picks, odds: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm among 9 ...cbssports.com
T2. Jon Rahm (-4) · T2. Ludvig Åberg (-4) · T7. Rory McIlroy (-3) · T7. Xander Schauffele (-3) · T23. Scottie Scheffler (-1) · T7. Patrick Reed (-3) · T11. Chris ...
May 17Open → - PGA Championship Round 4 Predictions, Picks & Oddscovers.com
PGA Championship favorites heading into Round 4 · 1. Alex Smalley (17%, +488) · T2. Jon Rahm (15%, +566) · T2. Ludvig Aberg (12%, +733) · T7. Rory McIlroy (11%, + ...
May 17Open → - 2026 PGA Championship Golf Betting: Final-Round Predictions ...vsin.com
This championship is still wide-open, but Jon Rahm (+450) is the slight favorite, and he will be in the penultimate pairing with Nick Taylor (18/1). Taylor ...
May 17Open → - 2026 PGA Championship: Who To Pick to Win the Wanamaker?pgachampionship.com
Our favorite on the odds board is two strokes back, Jon Rahm (+465). Smalley ... A simple, outright card, and one prop bet to play during the final round of the ...
May 17Open → - Alex Smalley Leads PGA Championship Leaderboard as ...heavy.com
“Scheffler leads the PGA this season with a fourth-round scoring average of 67.22,” the model noted. Sunday's updated betting odds included: Alex Smalley +480
May 17Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 7.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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