1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 1, 4:03 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 1% vs market 21% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 10, 2:45 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
20.5%
The market was pricing this event at 20.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
1.0%
EDGE DETECTED
8.5pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
48.8%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸No verified direct US-Iran military engagement exists that would require an official ceasefire agreement
- ▸Market significantly overprices event given zero evidence of bilateral hostilities needing resolution
FACTORS FOR
- +Diplomatic backchannel communications ongoing
- +Trump signals de-escalation timeline
FACTORS AGAINST
- −No direct US-Iran military engagement documented
- −Recent escalation with Isfahan strikes April 1
- −Iran rejected US 15-point plan
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 19.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.980
MARKET ACCURACY
0.632
EDGE
-348.1
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?, classifying it as overpriced at 20.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 1.0% vs market 20.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.