What happened
This market resolved NO on May 27, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 25, 4:08 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 56% vs market 32% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 27, 12:30 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 32.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis slightly favors a post‑recovery Memorial Day passenger count above 2,980,000
- ▸The lack of a named official source and strictness of “above” add uncertainty and keep confidence low
- +Memorial Day weekend historically near 2.6–2.9 million screenings
- +Post‑pandemic recovery and projections trending modestly higher into 2026
- −Threshold set near historical upper range leaves limited upside room
- −No verified official 2026 guidance or early‑season traffic confirmation
- Airport passengers today Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
If the Number of Airport Passengers Screened on May 25, 2026 is above 2680000, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Truflation.
May 25Open → - How a remote airport terminal could help move along TSA security ...goodmorningamerica.com
At the remote terminal, passengers will go through the same screening process they would at Logan Airport, complete with airport security equipment and TSA ...
May 19Open → - Boston Logan tests America's 1st remote TSA airport terminalaerospaceglobalnews.com
Boston Logan passengers can clear TSA security 25 miles away from the airport under a new “Straight to Gate” pilot program launching on June 1.
May 19Open → - Check In & Security | San Francisco International Airportflysfo.com
As of May 7, 2025, state-issued driver's licenses and IDs that are not REAL ID compliant are no longer accepted as valid forms of identification at airports.
May 24Open → - Public Health Arrival Restrictions and Enhanced Ebola Screeninges.usembassy.gov
... airports for enhanced screening: Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) for flights after 11:59 PM on May 21, 2026; Hartfield-Jackson Atlanta ...
May 25Open → - U.S. passengers flying from Ebola-affected countries rerouted - VPMvpm.org
Friday evening, it was announced that two additional U.S. airports will start screening in the next few days—the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International ...
May 23Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 24.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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