1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 9, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 4, 4:04 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 70% vs market 85% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 9, 12:28 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
84.5%
The market was pricing this event at 84.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
69.5%
EDGE DETECTED
17.9pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
HIGH
Kelly Reference
17.8%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Verified facts confirm ongoing US air operations but zero ground entry despite 26 days of conflict
- ▸Market severely overpricing based on air strike confusion versus actual resolution criteria
FACTORS FOR
- +Ongoing military escalation
- +Ground forces deployed to region
FACTORS AGAINST
- −No verified ground entry in 26 days
- −Officials explicitly ruled out ground troops
- −Air operations sufficient for current objectives
- −Diplomatic efforts ongoing
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 15.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.093
MARKET ACCURACY
0.024
EDGE
-69.0
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed US forces enter Iran by April 30?, classifying it as overpriced at 84.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 69.5% vs market 84.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 4, 2026·Resolved: April 9, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.