📈Finance/KALSHI/May 24, 2026
kalshi market

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.580?

PRISM
44.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
35.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-35pp

PRISM detected 5.0pp mispricing — market held

PRISM estimated 44% against the market's 35%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 23, 2026 at 8:06 AM
MODERATE · UNDERPRICED+5.0ppPRISM 44% · Market 35%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
44.0%
VS
MARKET
35.0%
EDGE DETECTED5.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
-15
PUBLISHED
May 24, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 25, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

3 events
  1. May 23, 8:06 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 44% vs market 35% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED

  2. May 24, 4:08 PMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 37%

  3. May 25, 2:30 PMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
35.0%

The market was pricing this event at 35.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
44.0%
EDGE DETECTED
5.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Probability estimate: 31%
  • ▸AAA’s latest $4.564 reading is below $4.580 with limited time and no verified major shocks to push a further jump
FACTORS FOR
  • +Recent AAA trend shows steady week-over-week price increases
  • +Holiday travel demand supports short-term upward pressure on gasoline
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −AAA price $4.564 sits below $4.580 strike with little buffer
  • −Only a few days remain for additional increase before resolution
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
AAA average continues recent upward trend and edges above $4.580 by print22%
Unexpected supply or demand shock drives a sharper near-term jump above $4.5809%
Evidence 52%
SOURCES (5)
last week
  • War Negotiations Break Down, Gas Prices Surge - NerdWalletnerdwallet.com

    Average gas and diesel prices by state ; Delaware, $4.340, $5.514 ; Florida, $4.213, $5.158 ; Georgia, $3.999, $5.087 ; Hawaii, $5.635, $7.117.

    May 18Open →
  • Memorial Day Weekend Gas Prices Reach Four-Year Highsgasprices.aaa.com

    The national average for a gallon of regular is at $4.56, up 3 cents over last week and $1.38 higher than this time last year. Current prices are close to what ...

    May 21Open →
  • Gasoline prices, liter, 18-May-2026 - GlobalPetrolPrices.comglobalpetrolprices.com

    Gasoline prices, Octane-95, 18-May-2026: The average price of gasoline around the world is 1.53 U.S. Dollar per liter. However, there is substantial ...

    May 18Open →
  • U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per ...eia.gov

    U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon). Year, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul ... U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices.

    May 19Open →
  • U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per ...eia.gov

    U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon). Year, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug ... U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Retail ...

    May 19Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 9.0% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.137
MARKET ACCURACY
0.122
EDGE
-14.6
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will average **gas prices** be above $4.580?, classifying it as underpriced at 35.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 44.0% vs market 35.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.161-publishability-allocator·Forecasted: May 24, 2026·Resolved: May 25, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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