What happened
This market resolved YES on May 21, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 18, 8:09 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 55% vs market 51% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 21, 4:00 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +96% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 51.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Probability estimate: 55%
- ▸Active talks and acute service disruption slightly favor a rapid settlement before the market deadline despite multi-union complexity
- +Talks resumed on May 18 after stalled weekend negotiations
- +Severe regional disruption creates strong pressure to end strike quickly
- −Five unions must all stop striking for YES resolution
- −Substantive wage and healthcare gaps may need more time
- News 12 | Lirr Service Suspended On Day One Of Historic Strikelongisland.news12.com
Train service at all Long Island Rail Road stations is suspended as workers walked off the job early Saturday morning, shutting down the system on the first ...
May 17Open → - LIRR Union says no new negotiations scheduled to resolve strikeyoutube.com
Union leaders say there are no new negotiations scheduled to resolve the LIRR strike on Sunday, now in its second day. Thousands of workers walked off the ...
May 17Open → - 2026 Long Island Rail Road strike - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
The 2026 Long Island Rail Road strike is an ongoing strike by around 3,500 Long Island Rail Road workers, around half the system's workers, ...
May 18Open → - LIRR strike shuts down nation's busiest railroad as unions, MTA fail ...abc7ny.com
CURRENT STATUS: No new talks scheduled. LIRR unions remain on the picket lines. The five unions represents about half its workforce, including engineers, ...
May 16Open → - LIRR strike: What to know about the rail workers' walkoutgoodmorningamerica.com
LIRR trains came to a halt at midnight on Saturday after the union representing thousands of rail workers and the MTA failed to reach an agreement on a new ...
May 18Open → - LIVE | LIRR workers go on strike after failing to reach deal with ...youtube.com
MTA officials give an update on contract talks with LIRR unions as the strike deadline passes.
May 16Open → - LIRR strike threat grows as commuters brace for possible ...youtube.com
A potential Long Island Rail Road strike could begin Saturday, with negotiations continuing between the MTA and unions representing thousands of workers.
May 14Open → - LIRR strike deadline looms as MTA, unions clash over pay ...youtube.com
A potential Long Island Rail Road strike could disrupt travel for around 300000 daily commuters if the MTA and unions do not reach a deal before midnight.
May 15Open → - LIRR STRIKE: Trains shut down as workers walk out for the ...youtube.com
The two sides have been negotiating for months on a new contract, but the unions were legally allowed to strike starting at 12:01 a.m. NBC New York's Greg ...
May 16Open → - LIRR strike continues as MTA, unions remain at odds on Day 2youtube.com
LIRR remains shut down as latest negotiations fail | Team coverage. CBS New York · 649 views ; Hochul SLAMMED as thousands of commuters stranded over major strike.
May 17Open → - LIRR strike leaving riders with marathon travel to NYC | Team ...youtube.com
On Day 1 of the Long Island Rail Road strike, riders reported their regular trips to and from New York City have become marathons.
May 17Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 4.1% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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