What happened
This market resolved YES on June 5, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
4 events- May 15, 4:43 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 67% vs market 22% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 17, 10:04 PMRE-ANALYZED
Prism 29% — edge +9.0pp
- May 18, 2:07 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 25%
- Jun 5, 2:30 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 22.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Probability estimate: 25%
- ▸Labor data show cooling but still positive job growth, so a modest beat of the 110,000 threshold remains reasonably likely
- +April payrolls at 177,000 remain comfortably above the 110,000 bar
- +JOLTS openings near 6.9 million indicate continued labor demand
- −ADP April estimate of 109,000 signals cooling hiring momentum
- −Broader commentary describes labor market as mixed and slowing
- Current Unemployment Rate and Other Jobs Report Findingsnerdwallet.com
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS), released on May 5, shows job openings were 6.9 million in March compared to: 6.9 million in February.
May 14Open → - Inflation, Jobs, Homes - Economic Update 16 May 2026 - YouTubeyoutube.com
... data Is there going to be a recession or slow down in 2026? Predictions And What To Do Now. Free Discord -Watchout for Scammers: / discord (I do not DM or ...
May 15Open → - Brazil unemployment rate in April Odds and Forecast | Octagon AIoctagonai.co
Formal job creation in March 2026 significantly exceeded expectations, adding 228,208 jobs. However, economists anticipate a gradual slowdown in job growth ...
May 15Open → - China unemployment rate in May Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
If the China unemployment rate is above 5.1% for May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Trading Economics.
May 18Open → - Data scientists: High demand, rebounding wage growthadpresearch.com
Wage growth for data scientists slowed considerably as the labor market stabilized in 2024 and 2025. And this year, wage growth has accelerated, signaling ...
May 17Open → - The data center buildout won't save employment in the AI eracautiousoptimism.news
The data center buildout won't save employment in the AI era. Today, we're talking prediction markets, higher education, and data center job creation. Alex ...
May 18Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 45.0% mispricing
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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