Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 51.0? — PRISM was right

What happened

This market resolved YES on June 3, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

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Forecast Tape

2 events

May 26, 8:09 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 72% vs market 66% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Jun 3, 3:00 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +52% return.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

66.0%

The market was pricing this event at 66.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

71.7%

EDGE DETECTED

5.7pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

LOW

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Probability estimate: 67%
▸Recent indicators point to a still‑expansionary US services sector, broadly consistent with the market’s current pricing above 50%

FACTORS FOR

+Latest data and commentary depict a healthy US services sector
+External structured estimates cluster in the 60–70% probability range

FACTORS AGAINST

−No direct advance signal for the specific May 2026 ISM print
−PMI releases are volatile around the expansion threshold

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Services PMI moderately above 51 on steady expansion55%

Upside macro surprise pushes services PMI clearly higher12%

Evidence 52%

SOURCES (2)

last week

United States ISM Manufacturing PMI - Investing.com UKuk.investing.com
08 May 2026. 1 · No Worries as Service Sector Stays Healthy Despite ISM Index Decline in April. I think it is safe to conclude that the service sector remains ...
May 24Open →
S&P Global / ISM / national statistics office resolution contextspglobal.com
Source: S&P Global / ISM / national statistics office Resolution field: Purchasing Managers Index value for the specified survey, country, sector, and month Frequency: monthly Known rule risks: Manufacturing, services, composite, NBS, ISM, and S&P Global PMI are different series; 50.0 is the expansion/contraction boundary but contract strikes may be far from 50; Flash and final PMI releases can differ; settlement depends on the contract source and release version
May 26Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 5.7% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.080

MARKET ACCURACY

0.116

EDGE

+35.2

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 51.0?, classifying it as underpriced at 66.0%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 71.7% vs market 66.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.180-commodity-resolver-map·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: June 3, 2026·kalshi

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.