1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 7, 3:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 89% vs market 65% — STRONG UNDERPRICED
- Apr 10, 2:45 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +54% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
65.0%
The market was pricing this event at 65.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
89.0%
EDGE DETECTED
17.1pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
68.6%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
5.0%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Ethereum trades at $2,069.56, requiring only 0.5% decline to breach $2,059.99 threshold
- ▸Market underprices probability given minimal downside risk over 2-hour window
FACTORS FOR
- +Current price $2,069.56 already above threshold
- +Only 0.5% decline needed to breach
- +Short 2-hour resolution window limits volatility
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Crypto volatility can cause rapid moves
- −CF Benchmarks ERTI may differ from spot prices
- −No fundamental support level at $2,060
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
ETH maintains current levels above $2,060 through 5pm EDT60%
Brief dip below threshold but recovers before settlement8%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 24.0% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.012
MARKET ACCURACY
0.122
EDGE
+110.4
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Ethereum price at Apr 7, 2026 at 5pm EDT?, classifying it as underpriced at 65.0%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 89.0% vs market 65.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 5.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 7, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.