1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 18, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 9, 8:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 26% vs market 18% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- Apr 18, 10:36 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
17.5%
The market was pricing this event at 17.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
26.0%
EDGE DETECTED
3.3pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
10.3%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
2.6%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Fidesz maintains structural advantages despite polling deficits to Tisza Party
- ▸Market underprices incumbency effects and diaspora voting patterns favoring ruling coalition
FACTORS FOR
- +Incumbency advantage with state resources
- +Diaspora votes historically favor Fidesz heavily
- +Pro-government polls show competitive race
- +Institutional control of election apparatus
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Independent polls show Tisza leading 49-51%
- −Opposition momentum building since 2022
- −Economic headwinds affecting incumbents
- −Tisza consolidating anti-Fidesz vote
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Fidesz wins narrow plurality despite Tisza surge15%
Diaspora votes provide decisive margin for Fidesz6%
Late campaign momentum shifts back to incumbents4%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 8.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.068
MARKET ACCURACY
0.031
EDGE
-37.2
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?, classifying it as underpriced at 17.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 26.0% vs market 17.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 2.6% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 9, 2026·Resolved: April 18, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.