1
What happened
This market resolved NO on May 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 1, 8:03 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 1% vs market 15% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 1, 6:38 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +17% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
14.5%
The market was pricing this event at 14.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
1.0%
EDGE DETECTED
7.2pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
73.4%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸UAE absorbed 1,540 drone and 278 missile attacks since February 28 without retaliating militarily
- ▸Historical defensive posture suggests continued restraint through April 30 deadline
FACTORS FOR
- +Regional escalation pressure
- +US alliance obligations
- +Iranian provocations continuing
FACTORS AGAINST
- −34-day defensive pattern established
- −Gulf states urged caution
- −No mobilization reports
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 13.5% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.000
MARKET ACCURACY
0.021
EDGE
+20.9
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?, classifying it as overpriced at 14.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 1.0% vs market 14.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: May 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.