🌍Geopolitics/POLYMARKET/April 1, 2026
polymarket market

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

PRISM
1.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
14.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-14pp

PRISM detected 7.2pp overconfidence — and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 14%. Model estimate: 1%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+17% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 1, 2026 at 8:03 AM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+7.2ppPRISM 1% · Market 14%
PRISM
1.0%
VS
MARKET
14.5%
EDGE DETECTED7.2pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+21
PUBLISHED
Apr 1, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 1, 8:03 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 1% vs market 15% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. May 1, 6:38 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +17% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
14.5%

The market was pricing this event at 14.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
1.0%
EDGE DETECTED
7.2pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
73.4%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸UAE absorbed 1,540 drone and 278 missile attacks since February 28 without retaliating militarily
  • ▸Historical defensive posture suggests continued restraint through April 30 deadline
FACTORS FOR
  • +Regional escalation pressure
  • +US alliance obligations
  • +Iranian provocations continuing
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −34-day defensive pattern established
  • −Gulf states urged caution
  • −No mobilization reports
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 13.5% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.000
MARKET ACCURACY
0.021
EDGE
+20.9
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?, classifying it as overpriced at 14.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 1.0% vs market 14.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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LOSS
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WIN
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: May 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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