📈Finance/POLYMARKET/April 19, 2026
polymarket market
Geopolitical event

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

PRISM
72.2%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
63.3%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+37pp

PRISM detected 6.5pp mispricing — and was right

Market priced this at 63%. PRISM saw 72% — a 6.5pp gap. The outcome confirmed the underpricing.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+58% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 19, 2026 at 2:04 AM
MODERATE · UNDERPRICED+6.5ppPRISM 72% · Market 63%
PRISM
72.2%
VS
MARKET
63.3%
EDGE DETECTED6.5pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+57
PUBLISHED
Apr 19, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on April 21, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 19, 2:04 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 72% vs market 63% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED

  2. Apr 21, 4:22 PMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Prism was right. +58% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
63.3%

The market was pricing this event at 63.3% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
72.2%
EDGE DETECTED
6.5pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
24.1%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
3.0%
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Iran reopened Strait of Hormuz April 17 with normal commercial traffic resuming
  • ▸Historical IMF data shows 20+ daily transits typical absent major disruptions
FACTORS FOR
  • +Iran officially reopened strait April 17
  • +Historical 20+ transit base rate
  • +No current disruptions reported
  • +11 days remaining for single occurrence
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Ongoing US blockade on Iranian vessels
  • −Potential policy reversals
  • −Regional tension volatility
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Standard commercial traffic with 20+ ships any day65%
Backlog clearing creates high-volume transit day10%
SOURCES (2)
last day
  • Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, but threatens to close it again as U.S. ...youtube.com

    ... through and threatened to close it again if the U.S. kept in place its blockade of Iranian ships and ports. KTLA's John Fenoglio reports on April 17, 2026 ...

    Apr 18Open →
  • Tankers and container ships u-turn at Strait of Hormuzseatrade-maritime.com

    The shipping industry is uncertain over Strait of Hormuz transits as Iran says it will not remain open if the US blockade continue.

    Apr 18Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 8.9% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.078
MARKET ACCURACY
0.135
EDGE
+57.2
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?, classifying it as underpriced at 63.3%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 72.2% vs market 63.3%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 3.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.0-numeric-scaffold·Forecasted: April 19, 2026·Resolved: April 21, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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