1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 17, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 15, 6:05 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 26% vs market 34% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- Apr 17, 9:30 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
33.5%
The market was pricing this event at 33.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
25.6%
EDGE DETECTED
5.4pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
23.5%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
2.9%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸BRTI currently at $74,680.80, requiring 0.4% gain to breach $75,000 threshold by April 17
- ▸Market overprices probability given current positioning below strike with limited time
FACTORS FOR
- +Current BRTI only 0.4% below threshold
- +Bullish technical forecasts targeting $74,147K+
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Recent 3.71% daily decline shows volatility risk
- −Extreme Fear sentiment (index 16)
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Steady upward momentum through settlement18%
High volatility pushes above threshold briefly8%
External catalyst drives sudden price surge5%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism's 7.9% edge call was wrong — market was right
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.553
MARKET ACCURACY
0.442
EDGE
-111.2
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Bitcoin price on Apr 17, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 33.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 25.6% vs market 33.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 2.9% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.9.0-numeric-scaffold·Forecasted: April 15, 2026·Resolved: April 17, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.