1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 11, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 9, 2:04 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 85% vs market 78% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- Apr 11, 2:30 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +29% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
77.5%
The market was pricing this event at 77.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
84.9%
EDGE DETECTED
4.1pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
33.1%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
5.0%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸WTI currently trades at $114.01, requiring 7% decline to breach $106 threshold
- ▸Strong divergence signal suggests market overpricing tail-risk scenarios
FACTORS FOR
- +Current price $8.01 above threshold
- +No major supply disruptions expected
- +OPEC+ increasing production gradually
- +IEA forecasts supply surplus
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Middle East tensions could spike prices
- −Technical indicators show extreme momentum
- −Recent 104% rally from yearly lows
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Price stays near $114 through settlement15%
Gradual decline to $106-110 range45%
Significant drop below $106 threshold40%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 7.4% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.023
MARKET ACCURACY
0.051
EDGE
+27.9
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be <106.00 on Apr 10, 2026?, classifying it as underpriced at 77.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 84.9% vs market 77.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 5.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.7.3·Forecasted: April 9, 2026·Resolved: April 11, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.