📈Finance/KALSHI/May 26, 2026
kalshi market

Will total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States for week ending May 29, 2026 be above 2800ㅤ?

PRISM
70.7%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
49.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-49pp

PRISM detected 21.7pp mispricing — market held

PRISM estimated 71% against the market's 49%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 24, 2026 at 4:08 PM
MODERATE · UNDERPRICED+21.7ppPRISM 71% · Market 49%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
70.7%
VS
MARKET
49.0%
EDGE DETECTED21.7pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
UNDERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
LOW
ACCURACY EDGE
-84
PUBLISHED
May 26, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 29, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

3 events
  1. May 24, 4:08 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 71% vs market 49% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED

  2. May 25, 6:07 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 50%

  3. May 29, 10:00 PMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
49.0%

The market was pricing this event at 49.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
70.7%
EDGE DETECTED
21.7pp
FORECAST
MODERATE UNDERPRICED
Confidence
LOW
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Probability estimate: 46% for total U.S.-related cancellations exceeding 2,800 for the week
  • ▸Market pricing appears roughly efficient given limited forward data and typical weather/operational uncertainty
FACTORS FOR
  • +Recent single-day cancellations figure is materially elevated
  • +Volatile recent trends increase odds of a disruptive multi-day episode
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −No specific forecast of major systemic disruption that week
  • −Market participants likely factor typical seasonal and operational patterns
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Several days of moderately elevated cancellations push cumulative total above 2,80030%
One or two major weather or system events spike weekly cancellations16%
Evidence 0%
4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 21.7% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.286
MARKET ACCURACY
0.203
EDGE
-83.5
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States for week ending May 29, 2026 be above 2800ㅤ?, classifying it as underpriced at 49.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 70.7% vs market 49.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.181-publish-path-viability·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: May 29, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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