Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 22, 2026 be above 4.20ㅤ? — What PRISM learned

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 28, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

4 events

May 23, 6:06 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 44% vs market 43% — NONE FAIR
May 25, 10:07 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 50%
May 26, 10:23 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 43%
May 28, 6:00 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

43.0%

The market was pricing this event at 43.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

50.0%

EDGE DETECTED

7.0pp

FORECAST

MODERATE UNDERPRICED

Confidence

LOW

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸The latest verified daily price is $4.191, marginally below the $4.20 threshold
▸The official weekly average required for resolution will not be published before settlement

FACTORS FOR

+Latest daily price near threshold

FACTORS AGAINST

−Official weekly average data unavailable

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Official FRED weekly average price exceeds $4.20 per gallon43%

Evidence 58%

SOURCES (4)

last week

United States - Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coasttradingeconomics.com
United States - Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast was 3.92800 $ per Gallon in April of 2026, according to the United States Federal Reserve.
May 23Open →
U.S. Gulf Coast Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Price FOB (Dollars per ...eia.gov
0.500, 0.508, 0.499, 0.504. 1995 May-15 to May-19, 0.507, 0.508, 0.515, 0.518, 0.521. 1995 May-22 to May-26 ... 2026 May- 4 to May- 8, 4.163, 4.182, 3.913, 3.996 ...
May 20Open →
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast (DJFUELUSGULF)fred.stlouisfed.org
Observations. 2026-05-18: 4.191 | Dollars per Gallon, Not Seasonally Adjusted | Daily. Updated: May 20, 2026 12:10 PM CDT. Next Release Date: May 28, 2026.
May 19Open →
Gulf Coast Jet Fuel (Platts) Futures Quotes - CME Groupcmegroup.com
Find information for Gulf Coast Jet Fuel (Platts) Quotes provided by CME Group. View Quotes.
May 19Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism's 7.0% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.184

MARKET ACCURACY

0.185

EDGE

+1.1

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 22, 2026 be above 4.20ㅤ?, classifying it as underpriced at 43.0%.

2.Forecast classification: MODERATE UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 50.0% vs market 43.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.185-analysis-path-replacement·Forecasted: May 26, 2026·Resolved: May 28, 2026·kalshi

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.