What happened
This market resolved NO on May 27, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 24, 6:11 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 28% vs market 22% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 27, 4:30 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 22.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸The forward curve for mid-2026 is significantly below the current spot price, with the relevant futures contract trading near $96.60
- ▸This creates a substantial gap to close for a YES resolution, despite recent spot strength
- +Current spot price $112.25 is $9.26 ABOVE target
- +Geopolitical supply risks remain elevated
- −July 2026 futures contract trading ~$96.60, well below threshold
- −Forward curve indicates lower expected future prices
- −Significant backwardation required for settlement above $102.99
- Oil (USCrude) Price Forecast for Today, Tomorrow, Next Week, and ...litefinance.org
In May 2026, WTI crude oil prices are expected to range between $74.51 and $138.97. Key drivers include ongoing geopolitical tensions, potential supply ...
May 22Open → - Oil Price (WTI) on Tuesday? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
Market Rules. Above $90.99. If the daily settlement price for WTI crude oil(July 2026 contract) on May 26, 2026 is above 90.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves ...
May 22Open → - Corn and Soybean futures decline amid crude oil selloff. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
20 May 2026 ... Grain markets experienced notable downward pressure midweek, driven largely by outside market headwinds as WTI Crude Oil futures plunged as much ...
May 21Open → - Crude Oil Futures Settlements - CME Groupcmegroup.com
Stay up to date with the probabilities of certain outcomes of the next OPEC meeting using NYMEX WTI Crude Oil option prices. Interactive Expiration Calendar.
May 22Open → - Crude Oil WTI Jul '26 (CLN26) - Barchart.combarchart.com
Crude oil rebounded from a 1-week low on Friday and settled higher as a US-Iran peace deal remains elusive, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and disrupting ...
May 22Open → - Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) - EIAeia.gov
2026 May- 4 to May- 8, 109.76, 105.66, 98.75, 98.38, 98.87. 2026 May-11 to May-15, 101.56, 105.78, 104.52 ... Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products.
May 20Open → - FRED verified macro/market datafred.stlouisfed.org
## VERIFIED ECONOMIC DATA — WTI CRUDE OIL (FRED — USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and is verified. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with any other data. Indicator: WTI Crude Oil Latest Value: $112.25 (as of 2026-05-18) — VERIFIED Change from previous: +$3.26 (+2.99%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-12: $105.78 2026-05-13: $104.52 2026-05-14: $104.66 2026-05-15: $108.99 2026-05-18: $112.25 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target: $102.99 $/barrel Current value: $112.25 Distance to target: $9.26 ABOVE target (9.0% above) Direction required: Value must stay above or rise
May 24Open → - EIA verified energy dataeia.gov
## VERIFIED EIA ENERGY DATA — WTI CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE (USE THESE NUMBERS) CRITICAL: The following data is from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — the OFFICIAL government source. This is the SAME data Kalshi uses to settle energy markets. Use ONLY these numbers. DO NOT substitute with other sources. Indicator: WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Latest Value: $112.25 (as of 2026-05-18) — VERIFIED, OFFICIAL Latest change: UP $3.26 (+2.99%) Trend (last 5 observations): RISING 2026-05-12: $105.78 2026-05-13: $104.52 2026-05-14: $104.66 2026-05-15: $108.99 2026-05-18: $112.25 ## PRE-COMPUTED MARKET MATH (use these numbers — do NOT recalculate) Target threshold: $102.99 $/barrel Current EIA
May 24Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 6.0% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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