πŸ“ˆFinance/KALSHI/May 23, 2026
kalshi market

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.54 and 4.56 on May 29, 2026?

PRISM
67.1%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
72.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-72pp

PRISM detected 4.9pp overconfidence β€” and was right

PRISM flagged overconfidence at 72%. Model estimate: 67%. The correction came through.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+257% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 23, 2026 at 8:10 PM
MODERATE Β· OVERPRICED+4.9ppPRISM 67% Β· Market 72%
Live view diverged Β· PRISM reclassified to MODERATE with edge now +4.9pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
67.1%
VS
MARKET
72.0%
EDGE DETECTED4.9pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+68
PUBLISHED
May 23, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on May 31, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

β—ˆ

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. May 23, 8:11 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 67% vs market 72% β€” MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. May 31, 5:00 AMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +257% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE Β· AT FORECAST TIME
72.0%

The market was pricing this event at 72.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high β€” the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
67.1%
EDGE DETECTED
4.9pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (ΒΌ Kelly Β· cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • β–ΈFundamental analysis indicates the 10-year Treasury yield is currently near 4.55%, aligning with the resolution band
  • β–ΈMarket expectations priced in CME futures for May and June 2026 at 4.583 and 4.565 suggest the current market probability is well-calibrated
FACTORS FOR
  • +Current yield reported at 4.55% within target band
  • +CME futures pricing near the 4.54-4.56% range
FACTORS AGAINST
  • βˆ’High sensitivity to Fed policy and economic data before May 29
  • βˆ’Narrow 2 basis point target band increases volatility risk
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Yield remains stable near 4.55% through settlement date65%
Yield fluctuates but stays within 4.54-4.56% on May 298%
Evidence 53%
SOURCES (7)
last week
  • Fixed income weekly commentary | Nuveennuveen.com

    We continue to forecast a 4.00% to 4.25% year-end range for the 10-year Treasury yield, though risks are skewed higher given the current trajectory of oil and ...

    May 17Open β†’
  • Mortgage Rates Ease Amid Treasury Yield Drop | Today, May 22 ...themortgagereports.com

    The yield on 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.55% from 4.625% (Good for mortgage rates). Β· Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. Β· Oil prices ...

    May 22Open β†’
  • United States Fed Funds Interest Rate - Trading Economicstradingeconomics.com

    United States Fed Funds Interest Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2026. The benchmark interest ...

    May 19Open β†’
  • The Fed - Monetary Policy: - Federal Reservefederalreserve.gov

    Equity prices had more than reversed their earlier declines, while 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose a bit further over the intermeeting period, as did ...

    May 20Open β†’
  • [PDF] National Economic Indicators, May 18, 2026richmondfed.org

    Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the March 2026 Summary of Economic. Projections. Red dots indicate median projections.

    May 17Open β†’
  • 2026 Outlooks: Market and Economic Forecasts | Morgan Stanleymorganstanley.com

    Our US Equity Strategist's S&P 500 target for mid-2027 stands at 8,300, supported by expected earnings growth of 23 percent in 2026 and 12 percent in 2027. The ...

    May 17Open β†’
  • 10-Year Yield Futures Quotes - CME Groupcmegroup.com

    10-Year Yield Futures - Quotes ; MAY 2026. 10YK6. 4.583. -0.085 (-1.82%). 4.668 ; JUN 2026. 10YM6. 4.565. -0.092 (-1.98%). 4.657.

    May 19Open β†’

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 4.9% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.450
MARKET ACCURACY
0.518
EDGE
+68.2
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.54 and 4.56 on May 29, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 72.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED β€” PRISM estimate 67.1% vs market 72.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: β€”% (ΒΌ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only β€” not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths β€” updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

VIEW LIVE FORECASTS
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PRISM: v0.9.156-precious-metal-evidenceΒ·Forecasted: May 23, 2026Β·Resolved: May 31, 2026Β·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTS β†’