Will above 30000 jobs be added in April 2026? — PRISM Activity

What happened

This market resolved YES on May 9, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events

May 9, 4:06 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 74% vs market 69% — NONE FAIR
May 9, 4:30 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME

69.0%

The market was pricing this event at 69.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY

74.0%

EDGE DETECTED

0.0pp

FORECAST

NONE FAIR

Confidence

LOW

Kelly Reference

N/A

PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)

N/A

PRISM REASONING

▸Fundamental analysis indicates a very high likelihood of YES given BLS-reported +115,000 April 2026 jobs
▸This matters because the official figure, post-release, decisively clears the 30,000 threshold

FACTORS FOR

+BLS reports +115,000 April 2026 nonfarm jobs, above 30,000 cutoff
+Report released before market resolution time, leaving no data uncertainty

FACTORS AGAINST

−Residual operational risk in how the platform applies resolution rules
−Small possibility of misinterpretation of BLS headline versus revisions

RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED

Kalshi resolves using initial April 2026 BLS headline +115,00094%

Any clarification still references April BLS level above 30,0001%

Evidence 52%

SOURCES (3)

last week

JOBS REPORT: Trump Economy Roars Ahead with Big Private ...whitehouse.gov
The economy added 115,000 jobs in April — crushing economists' expectations and delivering the second straight month of strong gains. In 2026, the economy has ...
May 8Open →
April 2026 Jobs Report: Moving, But Not Moving Along - Indeed Hiring Labhiringlab.org
Nonfarm employers added 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3 percent, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
May 8Open →
April 2026 Jobs Day Analysis - Joint Centerjointcenter.org
April 2026 Jobs Day Analysis. Joint Center May 8, 2026. Listen. The Joint ... The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, exceeding the 55,000 forecast ...
May 8Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

Why the gap existed

Prism's 5.0% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD

PRISM ACCURACY

0.068

MARKET ACCURACY

0.096

EDGE

+28.5

Brier edge

PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will above 30000 jobs be added in April 2026?, classifying it as fair at 69.0%.

2.Forecast classification: NONE FAIR — PRISM estimate 74.0% vs market 69.0%.

3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).

4.Outcome: resolved YES.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.102-provider-calibration·Forecasted: May 9, 2026·Resolved: May 9, 2026·kalshi

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.