What happened
This market resolved YES on May 26, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
Forecast Tape
2 events- May 22, 10:07 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 94% vs market 84% — MODERATE UNDERPRICED
- May 26, 2:00 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +19% return.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 84.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Fundamental analysis indicates an extremely high chance Starship Flight 12 launches before May 27, 2026
- ▸A scrubbed first attempt and an immediate next-day window strongly support imminent launch within the market window
- +Flight 12 hardware stacked, fully integrated, and in active countdown operations
- +First attempt scrub caused by fixable ground-system issue, not vehicle anomaly
- +Second attempt targeted within 24 hours, with defined FAA-approved window
- +Past cadence and stated goal of rapid Starship flights support reliability
- +Two-plus days of remaining window after the second attempt if needed
- −Potential for repeated ground-system or range issues delaying beyond window
- −Unknowns about regulatory or technical holds not visible in current reporting
- What time is SpaceX's Starship V3 launch today? (Starship Flight 12 ...space.com
SpaceX is currently targeting Friday (May 22), for the launch of its Starship Flight 12 test flight, with liftoff scheduled for no earlier than 6:30 p.m. EDT ( ...
May 22Open → - SpaceX scrubs first launch attempt of its Starship Version 3 rocketspaceflightnow.com
Liftoff is scheduled during a launch window that opens at 5:30 p.m. CDT (6:30 p.m. EDT / 2230 UTC) on Friday, May 22, if all goes well with the overnight ...
May 21Open → - FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) resolution contextkalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com
Source: FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) Resolution field: SpaceX launches Starship flight test number N before deadline. Outcome verified from FAA. Frequency: event-driven Contract terms: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/SPACEX.pdf Known rule risks: $1.27M+ volume — massive tech/space speculation market; FAA is the SOLE resolution source — NOT SpaceX announcements, NOT live streams; FAA data delay clause: if FAA data is delayed, market expiry shifts per Kalshi Rule 6.3b
May 22Open → - Last-Minute Problems Halt Launch of SpaceX's Newest, Biggest ...manufacturing.net
SpaceX's mega rocket Starship is prepared for a test flight that was later delayed in Starbase, Texas, Thursday, May 21, 2026.
May 22Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 10.0% mispricing
How this forecast played out
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