What happened
This market resolved NO on June 8, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
4 events- May 24, 4:08 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 76% vs market 76% — NONE FAIR
- May 25, 12:08 PMMARKET MOVED
Market 76% → 57% (-18pp)
- May 26, 10:23 PMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 78%
- Jun 8, 6:03 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 60.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Verified reporting indicates a ceasefire extension framework is 95% complete but lacks a formal US announcement
- ▸The short deadline and requirement for a public statement create execution risk
- +Draft MOU includes 60-day ceasefire extension
- +Both sides report deal is 95% complete
- −No formal US announcement yet
- −Short window to June 7
- U.S. and Iran Close in on a Framework Accord - The Soufan Centerthesoufancenter.org
... agreement and extends, for at least 60 days, the ceasefire in place since April 7. During that time (which can be extended by mutual consent), the two ...
May 26Open → - As Trump pursues Iran agreement, Republicans split over next stepse.jewishinsider.com
Among the details reportedly in the draft agreement: a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, a lifting of the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's ...
May 26Open → - Iran live updates: Iran's internet blackout partially lifted after 87 daysabc7chicago.com
Trump later announced the open-ended extension of the ceasefire and the continuation of a U.S. blockade until negotiations are concluded "one way or the other.".
May 26Open → - Iran deal progress is murky after US military says it carried out 'self ...whec.com
President Donald Trump insists a peace deal is close on the 88th day of the Iran war, but Iran on Tuesday denounced U.S. airstrikes as a sign of “bad faith ...
May 26Open → - Washington | International Crisis Groupcrisisgroup.org
President Trump described negotiations with Iran as "proceeding nicely", and went into to call for an expansion of the Abraham Accords that "should start with ...
May 26Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 17.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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