🏛Politics/KALSHI/May 17, 2026
kalshi market

Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jun 1, 2026?

PRISM
27.0%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
34.0%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-34pp

PRISM detected 7.0pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 27% against the market's 34%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED0% return
ISSUED FORECASTMay 17, 2026 at 12:08 AM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+7.0ppPRISM 27% · Market 34%
Live view diverged · PRISM reclassified to NONE with edge now +0.0pp. The issued forecast above is the historical commitment scored on the public ledger.
PRISM
27.0%
VS
MARKET
34.0%
EDGE DETECTED7.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+7
PUBLISHED
May 17, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on June 1, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

5 events
  1. May 14, 10:04 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 20% vs market 18% — NONE FAIR

  2. May 17, 12:08 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 27%

  3. May 17, 12:08 AMMARKET MOVED

    Market 18% → 34% (+16pp)

  4. May 17, 8:02 AMRE-ANALYZED

    Forecast MODERATE → NONE at Prism 37%

  5. Jun 1, 3:00 PMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
34.0%

The market was pricing this event at 34.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
27.0%
EDGE DETECTED
7.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
N/A
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸Probability estimate: 35%
  • ▸Large Labour majority and lack of visible leadership crisis make early departure materially less likely than market pricing implies
FACTORS FOR
  • +Political shocks or scandals can rapidly force early resignations.
  • +UK PMs sometimes depart mid‑term due to party calculation or health.
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Very large Labour majority strongly insulates against no‑confidence removal.
  • −No current signs of serious internal revolt or planned early exit.
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Major scandal, policy crisis, or health event forces resignation12%
Labour replaces Starmer as leader then installs new PM10%
Starmer calls early election and loses premiership6%
Starmer announces departure effective within a year by deadline7%
Evidence 46%
SOURCES (1)
last day
  • Keir Starmer considers resignation amid Labour Party crisiscryptobriefing.com

    ... ## Market Snapshot The “UK Cabinet Minister Resignation” market is seeing heightened activity, with current pricing suggesting a higher likelihood of ...

    May 17Open →

PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES

4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 7.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.138
MARKET ACCURACY
0.144
EDGE
+6.6
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jun 1, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 34.0%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 27.0% vs market 34.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.9.125-fast-ledger-floor·Forecasted: May 17, 2026·Resolved: June 1, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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