1
What happened
This market resolved NO on May 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 17, 12:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 30% vs market 40% — MODERATE OVERPRICED
- May 1, 6:47 AMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +66% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
39.7%
The market was pricing this event at 39.7% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
29.7%
EDGE DETECTED
7.5pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
25.2%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
3.1%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Iran consistently rejects complete enrichment halt as 'red line' despite Trump's unconfirmed claims
- ▸Market overprices diplomatic breakthrough with only 13 days remaining
FACTORS FOR
- +Trump claims Iran ready to hand over uranium
- +Ongoing US-Iran negotiations since April 2025
- +Market odds rose from 21% to 39.7% recently
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Iran calls enrichment 'indisputable right' and 'red line'
- −Wide gap: US wants 20-year pause, Iran offers 5-year
- −No Iranian confirmation of Trump's uranium claims
- −Only 13 days until April 30 deadline
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Iran unilaterally announces complete enrichment halt5%
US-Iran bilateral deal including enrichment cessation12%
Broader peace framework with enrichment end as precondition8%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 10.0% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.088
MARKET ACCURACY
0.158
EDGE
+69.4
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?, classifying it as overpriced at 39.7%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 29.7% vs market 39.7%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 3.1% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.9.0-numeric-scaffold·Forecasted: April 17, 2026·Resolved: May 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.