1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 17, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 16, 12:05 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 73% vs market 55% — STRONG UNDERPRICED
- Apr 17, 9:30 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +83% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
54.5%
The market was pricing this event at 54.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
72.6%
EDGE DETECTED
11.7pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
39.8%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
5.0%
PRISM REASONING
- ▸ETH currently trades at $2,358.92, just $8.93 above the $2,349.99 threshold
- ▸CF Benchmarks ERTI averaging methodology creates slight edge over casual price checking
FACTORS FOR
- +Current price $8.93 above threshold
- +Recent 7-day momentum +7.67%
- +24h positive trend +1.22%
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Crypto volatility can breach threshold quickly
- −One-day timeframe allows significant movement
- −No major catalysts supporting price
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
ETH maintains above $2,349.99 through 5pm EDT settlement45%
Brief dip below threshold but recovers before settlement8%
Positive volatility pushes price higher above threshold4%
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 18.1% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.075
MARKET ACCURACY
0.207
EDGE
+132.1
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Ethereum price at Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?, classifying it as underpriced at 54.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 72.6% vs market 54.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 5.0% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.9.0-numeric-scaffold·Forecasted: April 16, 2026·Resolved: April 17, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.