What happened
This market resolved YES on June 2, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.
Forecast Tape
5 events- May 9, 10:05 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 37% vs market 35% — NONE FAIR
- May 11, 2:05 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 35% → 64% (+29pp)
- May 14, 8:09 AMRE-ANALYZED
Forecast NONE → MODERATE at Prism 24%
- May 14, 8:09 AMMARKET MOVED
Market 64% → 74% (+10pp)
- Jun 2, 8:35 PMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.
What the market believed
The market was pricing this event at 73.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
What PRISM believed
- ▸Historical Strait of Hormuz traffic makes a 0–10 seven‑day average extremely unlikely by 2026
- ▸Only prolonged severe disruption into late May 2026 would produce such low readings
- +Requires sustained, extreme disruption through late May 2026
- +Strait is geopolitically sensitive, so disruption risk is nontrivial
- −Historical peacetime averages are far above 10 ships daily
- −Baseline shipping patterns usually normalize after shocks over multi‑month horizons
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Polymarketpolymarket.com
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?How many ships transit the Strait of ...
May 14Open → - Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, barring US weapons ...cryptobriefing.com
Iran claims control over the Strait of Hormuz, impacting shipping. 20 ships transiting by May 31 at 44% YES.
May 13Open → - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?polymarket.com
The current probability for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" is 76% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes ...
May 14Open → - Iran halts crude exports as US sanctions impact Strait of Hormuz trafficcryptobriefing.com
The probability of 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 is priced at 44% YES, a decrease from 45% over the last 24 hours and significantly down ...
May 13Open → - Million-dollar Panama Canal slots expose new pressure on global ...cyprus-mail.com
The authority said traffic had strengthened further in recent months, with daily averages rising from 34 vessels in January to 37 in March, while some peak days ...
May 13Open → - IMF PortWatch resolution contextportwatch.imf.org
Source: IMF PortWatch Resolution field: 7-day moving average of transit calls through Strait of Hormuz above 60, per IMF PortWatch Frequency: event-driven Contract terms: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/POLITICALSTATTEMPORAL.pdf Known rule risks: Traders price this as geopolitical sentiment ("will Iran tensions ease?") but it's a DATA market with quantitative threshold; IMF PortWatch is publicly accessible — you can track the 7-day MA in real-time; "Transit calls" = ship passages, tracked by AIS (Automatic Identification System) data
May 14Open →
PRISM RETRIEVES EVIDENCE FROM A CURATED LIST OF PRIMARY WIRES + OFFICIAL SOURCES
Why the gap existed
Prism's 49.5% edge call was wrong — market was right
How this forecast played out
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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
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