🏛Politics/POLYMARKET/April 1, 2026
polymarket market
Election result

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

PRISM
36.1%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
69.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
100%
MOVE
+31pp

PRISM detected 25.8pp overconfidence — market held

PRISM estimated 36% against the market's 70%. This time, the market was right — a calibration data point.

PRISM MISSED-100% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 1, 2026 at 4:03 PM
STRONG · OVERPRICED+25.8ppPRISM 36% · Market 70%
PRISM
36.1%
VS
MARKET
69.5%
EDGE DETECTED25.8pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
YES
FORECAST
STRONG
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
-316
PUBLISHED
Apr 1, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved YES on April 12, 2026. The market's pricing turned out to be more accurate than PRISM's assessment.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 1, 4:03 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 36% vs market 70% — STRONG OVERPRICED

  2. Apr 12, 12:00 AMRESOLVED YES

    Resolved YES. Market was closer than Prism on this call.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
69.5%

The market was pricing this event at 69.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
36.1%
EDGE DETECTED
25.8pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
46.9%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸TISZA leads consistently in verified polls by 8-12 points over Fidesz with election 11 days away
  • ▸Polling momentum and organizational strength support slight market underpricing of TISZA victory odds
FACTORS FOR
  • +Consistent 8-12 point polling leads
  • +Strong rally attendance and momentum
  • +Fidesz internal tensions and scandals
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Fidesz rural strongholds remain solid
  • −Winner compensation system favors constituency winners
  • −Historical incumbent advantage in Hungary
4

Why the gap existed

Prism's 33.4% edge call was wrong — market was right

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.409
MARKET ACCURACY
0.093
EDGE
-315.8
Brier edge
The market's probability estimate was more accurate than PRISM's on this call.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?, classifying it as overpriced at 69.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 36.1% vs market 69.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.

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Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: April 12, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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