📈Finance/KALSHI/April 13, 2026
kalshi market

Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >103.99 on Apr 17, 2026?

PRISM
43.5%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
53.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-54pp

PRISM detected 6.0pp overconfidence — and was right

Mid-April oil at $99. Market priced 53% on a $104 close. Prism’s 43% tracked supply fundamentals correctly — settlement landed below threshold. +115% return.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+115% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 13, 2026 at 12:05 PM
MODERATE · OVERPRICED+6.0ppPRISM 44% · Market 54%
PRISM
43.5%
VS
MARKET
53.5%
EDGE DETECTED6.0pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
MODERATE
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+97
PUBLISHED
Apr 13, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on April 18, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 13, 12:05 PMPUBLISHED

    Prism 44% vs market 54% — MODERATE OVERPRICED

  2. Apr 18, 9:00 PMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +115% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
53.5%

The market was pricing this event at 53.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
43.5%
EDGE DETECTED
6.0pp
FORECAST
MODERATE OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
18.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
3.5%
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸WTI front-month settled at $114.01 on April 11, requiring 9% rally in 6 days
  • ▸Market overprices persistence given recent bearish fundamentals and OPEC+ supply increase
FACTORS FOR
  • +Geopolitical tensions maintain risk premium
  • +Oil volatility enables quick reversals
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −Recent settlement $8 below threshold
  • −OPEC+ adding 206k barrels daily supply
  • −US inventories near three-year highs
RESOLUTION PATHS MODELED
Middle East escalation drives risk premium surge18%
Technical bounce from oversold conditions15%
Unexpected supply disruption or inventory draw9%
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 10.0% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.189
MARKET ACCURACY
0.286
EDGE
+97.0
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >103.99 on Apr 17, 2026?, classifying it as overpriced at 53.5%.
2.Forecast classification: MODERATE OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 43.5% vs market 53.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: 3.5% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.7.6·Forecasted: April 13, 2026·Resolved: April 18, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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