1
What happened
This market resolved NO on April 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
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Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 1, 6:03 AMPUBLISHED
Prism 55% vs market 85% — STRONG OVERPRICED
- Apr 1, 4:00 PMRESOLVED NO
Resolved NO. Prism was right. +545% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
84.5%
The market was pricing this event at 84.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
55.4%
EDGE DETECTED
21.3pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
31.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸T1's undefeated 5-0 split record against KT's struggling 2-3 performance reinforces their historical 28-7 dominance
- ▸Market slightly underprices T1's current form advantage
FACTORS FOR
- +T1 undefeated 5-0 current split
- +Historical 28-7 head-to-head dominance
- +Recent 2-0 victory January 23
- +#1 global ranking
FACTORS AGAINST
- −BO3 format allows upsets
- −KT could have improved since 2-3 record
- −High market confidence limits edge
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 29.1% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.307
MARKET ACCURACY
0.714
EDGE
+407.3
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2, classifying it as overpriced at 84.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 55.4% vs market 84.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: April 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.