🎮Esports/POLYMARKET/April 1, 2026
polymarket market

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

PRISM
55.4%
MARKET (PUBLISH)
84.5%
MARKET (SETTLED)
0%
MOVE
-85pp

PRISM detected 21.3pp overconfidence — and was right

T1 was 84.5% favorite. Prism flagged overconfidence at 55%. The upset paid 5.45x. Biggest single call.

PRISM WAS RIGHT+545% return
ISSUED FORECASTApr 1, 2026 at 6:03 AM
STRONG · OVERPRICED+21.3ppPRISM 55% · Market 85%
PRISM
55.4%
VS
MARKET
84.5%
EDGE DETECTED21.3pp
WEAK
MODERATE
STRONG
EXTREME
OUTCOME
NO
FORECAST
STRONG
DIRECTION
OVERPRICED
CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM
ACCURACY EDGE
+407
PUBLISHED
Apr 1, 2026
VIEW LIVE PRISM FORECASTSEdge scoring updated every 2h
1

What happened

This market resolved NO on April 1, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.

◈

Forecast Tape

2 events
  1. Apr 1, 6:03 AMPUBLISHED

    Prism 55% vs market 85% — STRONG OVERPRICED

  2. Apr 1, 4:00 PMRESOLVED NO

    Resolved NO. Prism was right. +545% return.

2

What the market believed

MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
84.5%

The market was pricing this event at 84.5% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too high — the market was overconfident.

3

What PRISM believed

PRISM PROBABILITY
55.4%
EDGE DETECTED
21.3pp
FORECAST
STRONG OVERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
31.7%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
  • ▸T1's undefeated 5-0 split record against KT's struggling 2-3 performance reinforces their historical 28-7 dominance
  • ▸Market slightly underprices T1's current form advantage
FACTORS FOR
  • +T1 undefeated 5-0 current split
  • +Historical 28-7 head-to-head dominance
  • +Recent 2-0 victory January 23
  • +#1 global ranking
FACTORS AGAINST
  • −BO3 format allows upsets
  • −KT could have improved since 2-3 record
  • −High market confidence limits edge
4

Why the gap existed

Prism correctly identified 29.1% mispricing

CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.307
MARKET ACCURACY
0.714
EDGE
+407.3
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5

How this forecast played out

1.PRISM analyzed LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2, classifying it as overpriced at 84.5%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG OVERPRICED — PRISM estimate 55.4% vs market 84.5%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved NO.

Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.

Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.

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PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 1, 2026·Resolved: April 1, 2026·polymarket
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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