1
What happened
This market resolved YES on April 10, 2026. PRISM's forecast aligned with the resolved outcome.
◈
Forecast Tape
2 events- Apr 5, 12:04 PMPUBLISHED
Prism 76% vs market 50% — STRONG UNDERPRICED
- Apr 10, 2:45 AMRESOLVED YES
Resolved YES. Prism was right. +100% return.
2
What the market believed
MARKET PRICE · AT FORECAST TIME
50.0%
The market was pricing this event at 50.0% probability when PRISM generated its forecast. PRISM assessed this was too low — the market was underpricing the probability.
3
What PRISM believed
PRISM PROBABILITY
76.1%
EDGE DETECTED
15.6pp
FORECAST
STRONG UNDERPRICED
Confidence
MEDIUM
Kelly Reference
52.3%
PRISM Sizing (¼ Kelly · cap 5%)
N/A
PRISM REASONING
- ▸Verified data indicates Bitcoin exceeded $67,249.99 threshold on April 5, 2026 with CoinCodex predicting $67,653
- ▸Resolution window has passed with strong evidence of YES outcome
FACTORS FOR
- +CoinCodex prediction $67,653 exceeds threshold
- +Robinhood market pricing at 69¢ confirms
- +Technical support held at $67,000 level
FACTORS AGAINST
- −Market inefficiency may reflect hidden information
- −CF Benchmarks data could differ from predictions
4
Why the gap existed
Prism correctly identified 26.1% mispricing
CALIBRATION SCORECARD
PRISM ACCURACY
0.057
MARKET ACCURACY
0.250
EDGE
+193.1
Brier edge
PRISM's probability estimate was more accurate than the market price.
5
How this forecast played out
1.PRISM analyzed Bitcoin price on Apr 5, 2026?, classifying it as underpriced at 50.0%.
2.Forecast classification: STRONG UNDERPRICED — PRISM estimate 76.1% vs market 50.0%.
3.Kelly reference at forecast time: —% (¼ Kelly, capped at 5%; mathematical reference only — not a position recommendation).
4.Outcome: resolved YES.
Get live PRISM forecasts for Kalshi + Polymarket.
Edge scores, Kelly references, confidence levels, and resolution paths — updated every 2 hours, before the market corrects.
VIEW LIVE FORECASTSRELATED INTEL
PRISM: v0.5·Forecasted: April 5, 2026·Resolved: April 10, 2026·kalshi
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. EdgeCal provides PRISM-generated market analysis and does not execute trades, manage funds, or guarantee returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.