ACCURACY SCOREBOARD

Every forecast is logged, resolved, and scored against the market baseline.

No cherry-picking. Losses included. Fully explorable by contract.

Kalshi97All Platforms176

Viewing: Kalshi-first performance. All-platform results remain available for full transparency.

Macro Calibration Board · Live

The PRISM (blind) calibration board for macro releases (GDP, CPI, payrolls, ADP, PPI YoY) is now live. See PRISM’s Brier Skill Score, reliability curve, Priority 5 tracker, resolved case studies, and per-category breakdown.

OPEN MACRO BOARD →
Forecasts
176
Resolved
173
Hit Rate
42.8%
Brier Score
0.219
Below avg

LOWER BRIER IS BETTER — IT MEASURES CALIBRATED ACCURACY

PRISM vs All Platforms Market
EDGECAL PRISM
0.219
VS
MARKET BASELINE
0.198
PRISM
0.219
Mkt
0.198
The All Platforms baseline currently shows lower forecast error than EdgeCal by 21.1 Brier points (173 resolved)
Log Loss (penalizes overconfidence)
PRISM
0.670
Mkt
0.584
Log loss gap: -8.7%
Lower is better. Brier: 0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip. Log loss: 0 = perfect, 0.693 = random.
Calibration Curve
Forecast probability vs actual outcome frequency
--- Perfect--- EdgeCal

WHERE EDGECAL HAS EDGE

Where EdgeCal claims structural edge, where it publishes broader coverage, and what gets hard-blocked.

Focus Categories
Politics · Geopolitics · Macro · Congressional · Event Crypto · Culture
Brier
0.226
Below avg · vs market 0.184
Resolved
77
35.1% wins
By Category
Geopolitics
0.222·37
Politics
0.224·27
Culture
0.252·8
Macro
0.222·5
Broader Coverage
Weather · Tech · Financials · Mentions · eSports · Weekly+ Crypto
Brier
0.225
Below avg · vs market 0.216
Resolved
86
45.3% wins
By Category
Financials
0.265·51
Tech
0.138·11
Monthly Crypto
0.136·11
Crypto
0.202·7
eSports
0.239·6
Tier 3 — Permanently Excluded
10 legacy resolved predictions in intraday crypto brackets, sports spreads, or short-dated microstructure markets. These categories are now hard-blocked by PRISM’s pre-screener. We don’t publish analysis where LLM ensembles have no structural edge.
Cumulative P&L (if followed)
--- Strong only--- All forecasts
All: +887.4%
Strong: +1201.0%
You just saw the aggregate

Now see the case studies.

Every resolved forecast — wins, losses, and what PRISM saw differently. Explorable by contract.

SEE CASE STUDIES →GET ACCESS
PRISM beta is live

The independent calibration layer for event contract markets.

The Macro Calibration Board and blind-window ledger are live. Join the list for paid access as PRISM builds more resolved forecast history.