ACCURACY SCOREBOARD

Every forecast is logged, resolved, and scored against the market baseline.

No cherry-picking. Losses included. Fully explorable by contract.

Kalshi30All Platforms69

Viewing: Kalshi-first performance. All-platform results remain available for full transparency.

Macro Calibration Board · Live

The PRISM (blind) calibration board for macro releases (GDP, CPI, payrolls, ADP, PPI YoY) is now live. See PRISM’s Brier Skill Score, reliability curve, Priority 5 tracker, resolved case studies, and per-category breakdown.

OPEN MACRO BOARD →
Forecasts
69
Resolved
58
Hit Rate
62.1%
Brier Score
0.194
Fair

LOWER BRIER IS BETTER — IT MEASURES CALIBRATED ACCURACY

PRISM vs All Platforms Market
EDGECAL PRISM
0.194
VS
MARKET BASELINE
0.201
PRISM
0.194
Mkt
0.201
EdgeCal currently shows lower forecast error than the All Platforms baseline by 7.2 Brier points (58 resolved)
Log Loss (penalizes overconfidence)
PRISM
0.656
Mkt
0.596
Log loss gap: -5.9%
Lower is better. Brier: 0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip. Log loss: 0 = perfect, 0.693 = random.
Calibration Curve
Forecast probability vs actual outcome frequency
--- Perfect--- EdgeCal

WHERE EDGECAL HAS EDGE

Where EdgeCal claims structural edge, where it publishes broader coverage, and what gets hard-blocked.

Focus Categories
Politics · Geopolitics · Macro · Congressional · Event Crypto · Culture
Brier
0.216
Below avg · vs market 0.179
Resolved
26
53.8% wins
By Category
Geopolitics
0.214·17
Politics
0.269·7
Culture
0.058·1
Macro
0.053·1
Broader Coverage
Weather · Tech · Financials · Mentions · eSports · Weekly+ Crypto
Brier
0.164
Fair · vs market 0.202
Resolved
21
61.9% wins
By Category
Monthly Crypto
0.129·9
Financials
0.196·8
Crypto
0.134·3
Tech
0.320·1
Tier 3 — Permanently Excluded
11 legacy resolved predictions in intraday crypto brackets, sports spreads, or short-dated microstructure markets. These categories are now hard-blocked by PRISM’s pre-screener. We don’t publish analysis where LLM ensembles have no structural edge.
Cumulative P&L (if followed)
--- Strong only--- All forecasts
All: +1774.1%
Strong: +1150.6%
You just saw the aggregate

Now see the case studies.

Every resolved forecast — wins, losses, and what PRISM saw differently. Explorable by contract.

SEE CASE STUDIES →GET ACCESS
PRISM beta is live

The independent calibration layer for event contract markets.

The Macro Calibration Board and blind-window ledger are live. Join the list for paid access as PRISM builds more resolved forecast history.