ACCURACY SCOREBOARD

Every forecast is logged, resolved, and scored against the market baseline.

No cherry-picking. Losses included. Fully explorable by contract.

Kalshi97All Platforms176

Viewing: Kalshi-first performance. All-platform results remain available for full transparency.

Macro Calibration Board · Live

The PRISM (blind) calibration board for macro releases (GDP, CPI, payrolls, ADP, PPI YoY) is now live. See PRISM’s Brier Skill Score, reliability curve, Priority 5 tracker, resolved case studies, and per-category breakdown.

OPEN MACRO BOARD →
Forecasts
176
Resolved
165
Hit Rate
44.2%
Brier Score
0.215
Below avg

LOWER BRIER IS BETTER — IT MEASURES CALIBRATED ACCURACY

PRISM vs All Platforms Market
EDGECAL PRISM
0.215
VS
MARKET BASELINE
0.200
PRISM
0.215
Mkt
0.200
The All Platforms baseline currently shows lower forecast error than EdgeCal by 15.0 Brier points (165 resolved)
Log Loss (penalizes overconfidence)
PRISM
0.665
Mkt
0.589
Log loss gap: -7.5%
Lower is better. Brier: 0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip. Log loss: 0 = perfect, 0.693 = random.
Calibration Curve
Forecast probability vs actual outcome frequency
--- Perfect--- EdgeCal

WHERE EDGECAL HAS EDGE

Where EdgeCal claims structural edge, where it publishes broader coverage, and what gets hard-blocked.

Focus Categories
Politics · Geopolitics · Macro · Congressional · Event Crypto · Culture
Brier
0.219
Below avg · vs market 0.185
Resolved
71
36.6% wins
By Category
Geopolitics
0.209·36
Politics
0.222·22
Culture
0.252·8
Macro
0.222·5
Broader Coverage
Weather · Tech · Financials · Mentions · eSports · Weekly+ Crypto
Brier
0.225
Below avg · vs market 0.220
Resolved
84
46.4% wins
By Category
Financials
0.265·51
Monthly Crypto
0.136·11
Tech
0.114·9
Crypto
0.202·7
eSports
0.239·6
Tier 3 — Permanently Excluded
10 legacy resolved predictions in intraday crypto brackets, sports spreads, or short-dated microstructure markets. These categories are now hard-blocked by PRISM’s pre-screener. We don’t publish analysis where LLM ensembles have no structural edge.
Cumulative P&L (if followed)
--- Strong only--- All forecasts
All: +1237.0%
Strong: +1150.6%
You just saw the aggregate

Now see the case studies.

Every resolved forecast — wins, losses, and what PRISM saw differently. Explorable by contract.

SEE CASE STUDIES →GET ACCESS
PRISM beta is live

The independent calibration layer for event contract markets.

The Macro Calibration Board and blind-window ledger are live. Join the list for paid access as PRISM builds more resolved forecast history.